Economic Growth in Portuguese-Speaking African Countries: A Tale of Contrasts

The Portuguese-speaking African Countries (PALOP) are set to experience diverse economic trajectories in 2024, with Mozambique leading the pack and Equatorial Guinea facing continued challenges. This economic landscape highlights the varying fortunes and resilience of these nations as they navigate global economic pressures and local circumstances.
Mozambique: The Growth Leader
Mozambique is poised to become the fastest-growing Portuguese-speaking economy in Africa. The country is projected to achieve an impressive 8% expansion in 2024, building upon a solid 5% growth forecast for 2023. This robust performance cements Mozambique's position as a economic frontrunner among PALOP nations.
Cape Verde: Tourism-Driven Recovery
Cape Verde's economy is showing signs of strong recovery, particularly in its vital tourism sector. After grappling with significant revenue losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the country is expected to see growth of 4.8% in 2023, accelerating to 5.4% in 2024. This upward trend underscores the resilience of Cape Verde's economic recovery.
Guinea-Bissau: Steady Growth
Guinea-Bissau is maintaining a consistent growth trajectory, with a projected 4.5% expansion for both 2023 and 2024. This stability in economic performance is noteworthy amidst the varying fortunes of its PALOP counterparts.
Angola: Moderate Expansion
As Africa's largest Portuguese-speaking economy, Angola is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2023 and 3.3% in 2024. While positive, this growth rate aligns closely with population increase, suggesting limited improvements in per capita wealth.
São Tomé and Príncipe: Gradual Acceleration
São Tomé and Príncipe is forecasted to see its economy accelerate from 2.1% growth in 2023 to 3.4% in 2024. This represents a slight improvement over the 3.1% growth recorded in 2020, during the first year of the pandemic.
Equatorial Guinea: Ongoing Recession
In stark contrast to its PALOP peers, Equatorial Guinea continues to face economic headwinds. The country has been mired in recession since the mid-2010s, with only a brief respite of 2.9% growth last year. The World Bank projects further contraction, with recessions of 3.7% in 2023 and 6% in 2024, followed by an additional 3.1% decline in 2025.
Regional Context and Challenges
The broader sub-Saharan African region is expected to see economic growth slow to 3.2% in 2023 before rebounding to 3.9% in 2024. However, this recovery faces numerous threats, including persistent high inflation, tightening global financial conditions, and outbreaks of violence and social unrest in some countries.
Furthermore, the region entered 2023 with 35 million more people facing acute food insecurity compared to the previous year. This situation has been exacerbated by high inflation, which exceeded 10% in nearly 70% of sub-Saharan African countries.
As PALOP nations continue to navigate these complex economic waters, their divergent growth patterns underscore the importance of tailored economic strategies and resilience in the face of global and local challenges.
References:
1. World Bank. (2023). Global Economic Prospects.
2. African Development Bank. (2024). Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook.
3. International Monetary Fund. (2024). World Economic Outlook.
4. 360mozambique.com. (2023). PALOP: Mozambique Will Be the Portuguese-Speaking Economy with Fastest Growth in 2024.
5. mznews.co.mz. (2023). PALOPs accelerate growth in 2024, with Mozambique standing out.
Citations:
[1] https://360mozambique.com/economy/palop-mozambique-will-be-the-portuguese-speaking-economy-with-fastest-growth-in-2024/
[2] https://mznews.co.mz/en/palop-aceleram-crescimento-em-2024-com-destaque-para-mocambique/
[3] https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/09/13/portuguese-speaking-countries-in-africa-looking-for-strategic-autonomy-in-a-multipolar-world/
[4] https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/press-releases/africa-dominates-list-worlds-20-fastest-growing-economies-2024-african-development-bank-says-macroeconomic-report-68751
[5] https://clubofmozambique.com/news/mozambique-leads-as-world-bank-sees-palop-accelerate-growth-in-2024-238818/
[6] https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/angola/overview
[7] https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/overview
[8] https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-september-2024_1517c196-en.html
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